Evaluation of the rural extension policy in Mexico, based on linear and non-linear econometric models
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22231/asyd.v21i3.1621Keywords:
agricultural innovation, public policy evaluation, regression modelsAbstract
Rural extension public policies are considered globally as a defining factor to accelerate agricultural innovation and to influence the reduction of rural poverty. Therefore, evaluating their results becomes important. The objective of this study was to evaluate the improvement in the income of recipients of the rural extension policy in Mexico during 2014-205. Data disaggregated at the level of plot by groups of recipients and non-recipients were used to evaluate the results based on the explicative variable of income. A database with statistical population of 1,083 producers was used, from which 58.5% were recipients and the rest non-recipients. Two regression models were adjusted to compare results. The multiple linear regression model based on ordinary least squares was adjusted in a first moment and, then, another non-linear generalized additive model with Pareto type dependent variable; in addition, a Bayesian additive regression tree model was used to verify the effect of the policy on the income of the recipients. The results exhibit that the generalized additive model with Pareto distribution and an identity link function was the best model, according to Akaike’s information criterion. In the adjusted models, it was shown that being a recipient of the rural extension policy has a positive effect on the producers’ income. This implies that the policy evaluated improved the income among its recipients.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Paulino Benigno Cruz, Humberto Vaquera Huerta, Gustavo Ramírez Valverde, Sergio Pérez Elizalde, Hilda Victoria Silva Rojas, Victor Manuel Santos Chávez
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