Extreme drought trends in Puebla: climate and socioeconomic indices with implications for water management.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22231/asyd.v21i1.1627Keywords:
CONAGUA drought monitor, RClimDex, risk managementAbstract
Droughts have caused damage in most of the state, generating economic, social and environmental consequences. This has caused social and political tensions and conflicts over the use of water at the local and municipal level. Therefore, it is important to generate knowledge about the current status and the evolution of droughts and their effects, due to the impact they have on various human activities and other areas. The objective of this study, is to analyze the principal databases to identify the state of Puebla’s exposure to drought as an important component of vulnerability and risk. The methodology used was quantitative through the exploration of the CONAGUA drought monitor, the RClimDex software based on monthly time series of climate indices to analyze trends of meteorological variables, as well as socioeconomic indicators from databases of government institutions to identify factors of exposure and sensitivity and which, together with the adaptive capacity, determine the degree of vulnerability. The results indicate that in recent years, the periods of drought affecting various municipalities, mostly in the North and Northeast Sierra as well as the Mixteca region in Puebla have increased, with an effect on climate vulnerability from drought, primarily from the event of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This represents an interesting contribution since there are few studies at the state level that analyze these databases, which are important in the detection of vulnerability to drought. In addition, it benefits decision makers in the adequate management of the water resource.
References
Bocco G, Orozco RQ, Álvarez LA, Solís B, Dobler MC. 2021. El estudio del impacto de la sequía en pequeñas comunidades rurales de México: Una revisión de la bibliografía; Universidad de Barcelona; Biblio 3W; 26; 1; 7-2021; 1-20. doi: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/183254.
Calvo-Solano OD, Quesada-Hernández LE, Hidalgo H, Gotlieb Y. 2018. Impactos de las sequías en el sector agropecuario del Corredor Seco Centroamericano. Agronomía Mesoamericana, 695-709. doi:10.15517/ma.v29i3.30828. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15517/ma.v29i3.30828
CENAPRED (Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres). 2012. Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana en el año 2011. (1a . ed.). Ciudad de México. Recuperado de: https://reliefweb.int/report/mexico/caracter-sticas-e-impacto-socioecon-mico-de-los-principales-desastres-ocurridos-en-la.
CONAGUA (Comisión Nacional del Agua). 2019. Estadísticas del agua en México 2019. Coordinación Ge¬neral de Comunicación y Cultura del Agua de la Comisión Nacional del Agua, Ciudad de México, Méxi¬co. Recuperado de: https://files.conagua.gob.mx/conagua/publicaciones/Publicaciones/EAM_2019.pdf.
CONAGUA (Comisión Nacional del Agua). 2023. Bases de datos de estaciones meteorológicas. recupera¬do de: https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/informacion-climatologica/informacion-estadistica-climatologica.
CONEVAL (Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social). 2023. Pobreza por mu¬nicipio. Recuperado de: https://www.coneval.org.mx/Medicion/Paginas/Pobreza-municipio-2010-2020.aspx.
CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población). 2020. Índices de marginación 2020. Recuperado de: https://www.gob.mx/conapo/documentos/indices-de-marginacion-2020-284372.
Coronel A. 2013. Sequía: concepto e índices de monitoreo. Propuesta de un nuevo índice. Revista Agromen¬sajes, 37(1). 1-3. Recuperado de: https://fcagr.unr.edu.ar/Extension/Agromensajes/37/1AM37.pdf
Cortez-Villa J, Quevedo-Nolasco A, Arteaga-Ramírez R, Carrillo-Flores G. 2020. Tendencia de la sequía me¬teorológica en el estado de Durango, México, por el método de Rodionov. Tecnología y ciencias del agua, 11(1). 85-131. doi: https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2020-01-03. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2020-01-03
Espinosa RLM, Alcántara MJA, Hernández JR. 2022. Vulnerabilidad agrícola por sequía: propuesta y va¬lidación metodológica para el estado de México. Papeles de Geografía, (66). https://doi.org/10.6018/geografia.409401. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6018/geografia.409401
Felsche E, Ludwig R. 2021. Applying machine learning for drought prediction in a perfect model framework using data from a large ensemble of climate simulations, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(12). 3679–3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021
González de la Rocha M, Saraví G. 2018. Pobreza y vulnerabilidad: debates y estudios contemporáneos en México. Ciudad de México: CIESAS.
INECC (Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático). 2016. Vulnerabilidad al cambio climático. Recuperado de: https://www.gob.mx/inecc/acciones-y-programas/vulnerabilidad-al-cambio-climati¬co-80125.
INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). 2020. Censo de Población y Vivienda 2020, Puebla. Recuperado de: https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/programas/ccpv/2020/doc/cpv2020_pres_res_ pue.pdf.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In: Parry ML, Can¬ziani OF, Palutikof JP, Van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergover¬nmental Panel on Climate Change. 7–22. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Recuperado de: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg2/.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disas¬ters to advance climate change adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergo¬vernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012a. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Reino Unido, y Nueva York, NY, Estados Unidos de América. Recuperado de: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation/.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013. Cambio climático 2013: bases físicas. Recu¬perado de: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_SPANISH.pdf.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014. Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers. (R. K. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, Meyer LA, Eds.). Ginebra, Suiza: IPCC. Recuperado de: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2018. Calentamiento global de 1.5°C. [Masson-Del¬motte V, Zhai P, Pörtner HO, Roberts D, Skea J, Shukla PR, Pirani A, Moufouma-Okia W, Péan C, Pidcock R, Connors S, Matthews JBR, Chen Y, Zhou X, Gomis MI, Lonnoy E, Maycock T, Tignor M, Waterfield T (eds)]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001. pp: 1-34. DOI: https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001
Lazcarro MC, Tristán AC, Belitskaya VD, Ovalle AC, Putri RF. 2020. Comparation of two climate me-thodologies on Lerma Chapala basin: moving mean and climate variability indices with RClimDex. In: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 451(1). p. 012023. IOP Publishing. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/451/1/012023 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/451/1/012023
Lobato-Sánchez R, Altamirano del Carmen MÁ, Hoyos Reyes C, López Pérez M, Salas Salinas MA, Rosario de la Cruz JG. 2019. Procedimiento metodológico para la elaboración de un monitor de la persistencia de la sequía en México. Tecnología y ciencias del agua, 10(1). 146-176. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2019-01-06. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2019-01-06
Lobato-Sánchez R. 2016. El monitor de la sequía en México. Tecnología y ciencias del agua, 7(5). 197-211. Recuperado de: http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2007- 24222016000500197&lng=es&tlng=es.
Matailo-Ramírez LM, Luna-Romero ÁE, Alava ARC, Jaramillo FYV. 2019. Sequías: Efecto sobre los recursos naturales y el desarrollo sostenible. Agroecosistemas, 7(3). 154-162. Recuperado de: https://aes.ucf.edu.cu/index.php/aes/article/view/331.
Méndez M. 2013. Diagnóstico y Pronóstico de Sequía en México. (informe OMM / MOMET-043). México: Comisión Nacional del Agua y Organización Meteorológica Mundial. Recuperado de: https://sites.goo¬gle.com/a/wmo.int/mx/infosmomet/mometyear/2013.
Mishra AK, Singh VP. 2010. A review of drought concepts. Journal of hydrology, 391(1-2). 202-216. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
Monitor de Sequía de México (MSN). 2023. Comisión Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA). https://smn.cona¬gua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/monitor-de-sequia/monitor-de-sequia-en-mexico
Nandgude N, Singh TP, Nandgude S, Tiwari M. 2023. Drought Prediction: A Comprehensive Review of Different Drought Prediction Models and Adopted Technologies. Sustainability, 15(15). 11684. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511684. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511684
NIDIS. 2007. The National Integrated Drought Information System implementation plan: A pathway for national resilience. Recuperado de: https://www.drought.gov/documents/national-integrated-drought-information-system-implementation-plan.
Núñez Cobo J, Verbist K. 2018. Atlas de sequías de América Latina y el Caribe. UNESCO y CAZALAC.
ONU (Organización de las Naciones Unidas). 2019. Convención de las Naciones Unidas de lucha contra la desertificación en los países afectados por Sequía grave o desertificación, en particular en África. Recupe¬rado de: https://knowledge.unccd.int/knowledge-products-and-pillars/unccd-science-policy-blog.
OMM (Organización Meteorológica Mundial). 1992. La Conferencia Mundial sobre el Clima. En Boletín de la OMM, XXVIII. N° 3. Ginebra, Suiza.
PECC (Programa Especial de Cambio Climático 2014-208). 2014. Recuperado de: http://dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5342492&fecha=28/04/2014.
Robles CJE. 2022. Asignación de recursos de respuesta a sequías y su impacto sesgado en la producción Agrí¬cola Mexicana. Sobre México Temas De Economía, 1(6). 40-80. https://doi.org/10.48102/rsm.v1i6.111. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48102/rsm.v1i6.111
Ruiz-Álvarez O, Singh VP, Enciso-Medina J, Ontiveros-Capurata RE, dos Santos CAC. 2020. Observed trends in daily temperature extreme indices in Aguascalientes, Mexico. Theoretical and Applied Climato¬logy, 142. 1425-1445. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03391-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03391-1
Toscana-Aparicio, A, Günther MG. 2021. La sequía de 2019 en localidades cañeras del norte de Oaxaca. Vulnerabilidad, prevención, adaptación y mitigación. Estudios sociales. Revista de alimentación contem¬poránea y desarrollo regional, 31(57). https://doi.org/10.24836/es.v31i57.1076. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24836/es.v31i57.1076
USDM (U. S. Drought Monitor). 2023. Monitor de Sequía de los Estados Unidos de América. Recuperado de: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Varela Ledesma N, Oquendo Ferrer HM, Romero Suárez PL. 2020. Gestión del riesgo por sequía hacia un enfoque integral. Revista Universidad y Sociedad, 12(4). 377-382. Recuperado de: http://scielo.sld.cu/pdf/rus/v12n6/2218-3620-rus-12-06-380.pdf.
Velasco Hernández MDLÁ, Morales Acoltzi T, Estrella Chulim NG, Díaz Ramos R, Juárez Sánchez JP, Her¬nández Vázquez M, Bernal Morales R. 2015. Tendencias y variabilidad de índices de cambio climático: enfoque agrícola en dos regiones de México. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Agrícolas, 6(7). 1587-1599. Recuperado de: https://www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/remexca/v6n7/v6n7a13.pdf. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v6i7.552
Wilhite DA, Glantz MH. 1985. Understanding the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Water International 10(3). 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328
Zarafshani K, Sharafi L, Azadi H, Van Passel S. 2016. Modelos de evaluación de vulnerabilidad a la sequía: hacia un marco conceptual. Sostenibilidad, 8(6). 588. MDPI AG. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su8060588. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su8060588
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 María Ángeles Velasco Hernández, Wendy Jannette Ascencio López, Neri Martín Suárez, Miguel Ángel Hernández Espinosa, María Dolores Guevara Espinosa, Enrique Salgado Villavicencio
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish in this journal accept the following conditions:
- The authors retain the copyright and transfer to the magazine the right of the first publication, with the work registered with the Creative Commons attribution license, which allows third parties to use what is published as long as they mention the authorship of the work and the first publication in this magazine.
- Authors may make other independent and additional contractual arrangements for non-exclusive distribution of the version of the article published in this journal (e.g., including it in an institutional repository or publishing it in a book) as long as they clearly indicate that the work It was first published in this magazine.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to publish their work on the Internet (for example on institutional or personal pages) before and during the review and publication process, as it can lead to productive exchanges and greater and faster dissemination of the work. published (see The Effect of Open Access).
